Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking multiple all-time highs as traders monitor critical market movements and liquidity dynamics. A record-breaking monthly and quarterly close could set the stage for the next major price move.
With reduced macroeconomic pressure from the U.S., investor focus remains on Federal Reserve policy and its potential influence on crypto markets. Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests a growing supply-demand imbalance that may challenge short-term bullish momentum.
Here are the five key factors every Bitcoin observer should watch this week.
Increased Volatility and Market Liquidity Games
Bitcoin saw a last-minute push on June 29th that nearly secured a historic weekly close above $109,000. Although it fell just short, trading activity remained strong into the monthly and quarterly closing period.
Liquidity patterns on exchange order books have become a central focus. Prominent trader Skew attributed recent price strength to “predatory” algorithmic trading bots, noting that large players are intentionally triggering liquidations and misleading breakouts.
“The game is on—keep a close eye on liquidity,” Skew remarked in a recent update.
Another trader, BitBull, added that the same entities responsible for pushing Bitcoin higher two weeks ago also triggered a sharp decline the following day. This recurring behavior highlights the impact of coordinated liquidity plays on short-term price action.
A Historically Significant Monthly Close?
This month’s closing candle is particularly significant—not only does it conclude June trading but it also wraps up Q2 2025, which is poised to finish with around 30% gains.
According to data from CoinGlass, June is also expected to close in the green despite a volatile final stretch. To achieve a record monthly close, Bitcoin needs to hold above $104,630—giving bulls a cushion of nearly 3% from current levels.
Traders are optimistic. As one analyst noted:
“Broke the January highs last month, retested them this month, and pushed higher once more. July should be even better.”
However, liquidity distribution may influence short-term moves. Material Indicators reported sell-side liquidity clustered between $108,000 and $110,000, with buy support extending down to $98,000. This could fuel volatility in the coming days.
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, expects another sweep of lower liquidity zones despite the potential for a record monthly close.
Macro Calm: Fed Policy and Upcoming Data
This week offers a brief respite from high-impact U.S. macroeconomic events due to the Independence Day holiday. Still, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve.
Despite mounting political pressure, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained steadfast during his recent congressional testimony, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates.
Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch Tool, currently assign a 75% probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the September FOMC meeting. This week’s key release—the Non-Farm Payrolls report on July 3rd—could solidify or shake those expectations.
For crypto traders, the interplay between Fed policy and market liquidity remains a foundational influence on Bitcoin’s medium-term trend.
On-Chain Signal: A Critical Demand Gap
Beneath the surface of price action, on-chain data reveals a concerning trend. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is experiencing a “critical demand gap.”
The report notes that selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) and miners now outpaces new investor demand. This has led to a negative “apparent demand” reading—a metric that subtracts LTH and miner selling from buy-side volume.
The last time this signal turned negative, Bitcoin was trading below $75,000 before staging a significant recovery.
CryptoQuant analysts warn:
“The market is in a fragile state. Any price rally from here may struggle to overcome this wave of available supply.”
This doesn’t guarantee a downturn, but it does suggest caution until demand clearly recovers.
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Is the Bull Run Nearing Its End?
If historical cycles repeat, Bitcoin may be only a few months away from its next bull market peak. Analyst Rekt Capital suggested that a September or October 2025 top would align with past halving cycle patterns.
Although Bitcoin broke all-time highs ahead of the April 2024 halving, the analyst believes the market may be normalizing toward its typical cycle length.
Rekt Capital noted:
“If Bitcoin is undergoing cycle slowdown, it may soon enter a parabolic upside phase to make up for lost time.”
While nothing is certain, cycle analysis reminds investors that bull markets don’t last forever—and that timing remains crucial.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a monthly close in Bitcoin trading?
A monthly close refers to the final price of Bitcoin at the end of a calendar month. It is closely watched by traders and analysts as it helps identify long-term trends and potential support or resistance levels.
How do liquidity games affect Bitcoin’s price?
Large traders and algorithms often place large buy or sell orders around key levels to trigger liquidations or false breakouts. This can cause short-term volatility and impact market sentiment.
What does “apparent demand” mean in on-chain analysis?
Apparent demand measures the net difference between new buyer demand and selling pressure from long-term holders and miners. A negative value suggests selling outweighs buying, which can signal market weakness.
When is the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting?
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for late July 2025. While no rate change is widely expected, guidance on future monetary policy could influence crypto and equity markets.
How might U.S. economic data affect Bitcoin?
Key reports like Non-Farm Payrolls can affect expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Strong data may delay rate cuts, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and temporarily pressure Bitcoin.
What is a cycle top in cryptocurrency markets?
A cycle top is the highest price point reached in a bull market before a significant correction or bear market begins. Analysts often use historical patterns and on-chain data to estimate when a top may occur.