Despite recent price volatility and the onset of Q3—historically Bitcoin’s weakest quarter—crypto market sentiment remains resilient. Even as Bitcoin dipped nearly 2% in the past 24 hours, hovering around the $105,000 mark, the overall mood across digital asset markets has stayed notably stable.
On Wednesday, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a widely tracked sentiment gauge, registered a "Greed" score of 63 out of 100, down just one point from the previous day. Bitcoin (BTC) itself retraced by 1.79% to $105,560, according to CoinMarketCap data, after nearly touching $108,000 earlier in the week.
Strong Sentiment Ahead of Historically Weak Q3
Crypto analysts have been actively speculating on when Bitcoin might retest its all-time high of $111,970, set on May 22. Optimism peaked on Monday as the price approached $109,000, before another short-term pullback ensued.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,560. Source: CoinMarketCap
Some market observers have pointed out that Q3, which began on July 1, has traditionally been a period of slower performance for Bitcoin.
"Historically, this quarter tends to be the slowest for both BTC and ETH," noted cryptocurrency trader Daan Crypto Trades on Tuesday.
Data from CoinGlass indicates that since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of 5.47% during Q3. If this pattern holds, it would push Bitcoin’s price to approximately $111,000 by September 30—just shy of its current record high.
Daan attributed this typically slower performance to "sluggish summer months, which usually see less activity, trading volume, and liquidity."
Bitcoin’s Q2 Performance Matched Historical Averages
Bitcoin’s performance in the second quarter, which ended on June 30, aligned closely with historical trends. It posted a 31% gain, closing at $108,383—roughly 4% higher than the average Q2 return of 27% observed since 2014. Notably, June concluded with Bitcoin’s highest monthly close on record.
Other metrics continue to show a market strongly skewed in Bitcoin’s favor. Bitcoin dominance, which measures its share of the total crypto market capitalization, stands at approximately 65.5%, according to TradingView data, and has climbed nearly 13% year-to-date.
Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index by CoinMarketCap—which tracks whether the top 100 altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day period—currently shows a "Bitcoin Season" score of 20 out of 100.
However, not all signals are uniformly bullish. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted on Wednesday that the firm’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Score has declined into neutral territory.
"The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Score is now neutral—at 50. It needs to be at 60 or above for the price to sustain a rally," Moreno stated.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Q3 historically weak for Bitcoin?
Q3 often coincides with the summer months in many regions, a period when trading activity and liquidity tend to decrease across financial markets. This seasonal slowdown typically results in more modest price gains for Bitcoin compared to other quarters.
What is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index?
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a sentiment indicator that aggregates various data sources—including volatility, market momentum, and social media sentiment—to score market mood on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It helps gauge whether investors are overly fearful or optimistic.
How is Bitcoin dominance calculated?
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies. A high dominance value suggests that Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins and commanding a larger share of investor attention and capital.
What does a neutral Bull-Bear Score indicate?
A neutral Bull-Bear Score, like the 50 reported by CryptoQuant, suggests a balance between bullish and bearish on-chain and market indicators. It implies uncertainty in the short-term direction and indicates that stronger signals are needed to push the market into decisively bullish territory.
Can altcoins outperform during Bitcoin dominance highs?
While high Bitcoin dominance typically means capital is flowing into BTC rather than altcoins, it is still possible for certain altcoins to outperform during these periods. However, sustained altcoin rallies often become more likely when Bitcoin dominance trends downward or stabilizes.
What factors could help Bitcoin break its all-time high?
Key factors include sustained institutional demand, positive regulatory developments, broader macroeconomic trends favoring store-of-value assets, and increased adoption in both payments and decentralized finance applications. Market liquidity and investor sentiment also play critical roles.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.