Market Context and Fed Policy Impact
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates seven times this year, with a cumulative increase of 425 basis points. As in previous statements, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of not relaxing policy prematurely. The Federal Reserve remains committed to its course until its objectives are met. According to the latest dot plot released after the meeting, officials expect higher tightening levels than previously anticipated, with the interest rate projected around 5.1% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024.
This macroeconomic backdrop continues to influence the cryptocurrency market, contributing to the cautious and often risk-off sentiment among investors.
Weekly Market Overview
As the new week begins, let’s briefly examine the weekly chart perspective. From a technical standpoint, prices remain in a weak trend. The formation of lower highs suggests a consolidating downward movement. The strong resistance level is near the $13,500 area, which previously acted as a rejection point during pullbacks. On the downside, support is situated around $1,070, near the prior low. Overall, the market is experiencing relatively narrow range-bound movement without significant volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Perspective
Following last week’s significant decline, Bitcoin found temporary support around $16,500, where it has consolidated for two consecutive days. A阶段性高点 (stage high) has formed, indicating that the bearish trend is not yet complete. The overall strategy should continue to favor short positions on rallies.
Short-Term Hourly Chart Outlook
Over the weekend, Bitcoin traded within a narrow range near recent lows, showing minimal volatility. While there is some short-term upward pressure, any upward movement appears relatively weak and may not result in a strong rebound. Immediate resistance is near the $17,000 zone.
Today’s BTC Trading Strategy
For short-term合约交易 (contract trading), consider entering short positions near the resistance zone. The recommended approach is to sell in batches between $16,800 and $17,000. Set a stop loss at $17,200, with a target range between $16,400 and $16,200.
For those looking to refine their trading approach, consider using 👉 real-time market analysis tools to stay updated with live data and trends.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Perspective
After a series of declining sessions and significant pullbacks, Ethereum’s price is now in a consolidation phase, acting as a bearish continuation pattern. The overall trend remains bearish, with a high probability that prices will break below the $1,080 support area. Such a break could accelerate selling pressure.
Short-Term Hourly Chart Outlook
Since facing resistance near $1,355, Ethereum has experienced consistent downward pressure. Over the weekend, it traded below $1,200 in a sideways pattern. The trading strategy aligns with Bitcoin: look for selling opportunities on bounces.
Key resistance is around $1,215. Short positions are advised near this level.
Today’s ETH Trading Strategy
For short-term contracts, consider selling in batches between $1,195 and $1,215. Place a stop loss at $1,235, targeting a downward move toward $1,140–$1,120.
A Word to Investors
Opportunity always favors the prepared. This phrase holds profound wisdom. If everyone agrees on a market direction, it is likely not an opportunity at all. While this may seem like a game of博弈 (strategy), it holds significant meaning for value investors.
The financial markets are inherently competitive and unforgiving. Large players are not charitable institutions. To navigate these waters successfully, remain vigilant, prioritize learning over impulsive action, and develop independent judgment. Ultimately, the goal is for every investor to secure their share of returns in this dynamic environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the dot plot released by the Fed?
The dot plot is a chart released by the Federal Reserve that illustrates the interest rate projections of its members. It provides insight into the expected direction of monetary policy, which strongly influences global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
How do interest rate hikes affect Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Rising interest rates typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and make riskier assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive. This often leads to capital outflow from digital assets into traditional, yield-bearing safe havens.
What does ‘range-bound movement’ mean in trading?
Range-bound movement refers to when the price of an asset fluctuates within a specific upper resistance and lower support level without breaking out. Traders often use this pattern to make buy or sell decisions at key boundaries.
Why use a分批 (batch) entry strategy?
Entering a position in batches allows traders to average their entry price, reducing risk if the market moves against their initial trade. It is a common risk-management technique in volatile markets.
What is a stop loss, and why is it important?
A stop loss is a predetermined price level at which a trade is automatically closed to prevent further losses. It is a critical tool for managing risk and protecting capital in unpredictable markets.
How can I stay updated with reliable market analysis?
Follow trusted sources and platforms that provide real-time data and technical analysis. For ongoing guidance, you can 👉 explore professional trading resources that offer updated strategies and market insights.