Bitcoin’s on-chain activity provides essential insights into market dynamics, investor sentiment, and potential price movements. This analysis covers key metrics from mid-June 2025, highlighting shifts in network activity, derivatives trading, supply distribution, and whale behavior.
Active Addresses and Network Participation
Network activity serves as a foundational indicator of blockchain health and user engagement.
Daily Active Addresses
Between June 11 and June 18, the Bitcoin network recorded 1,022,033 active addresses. During this period, Bitcoin’s price climbed to $106,000. However, a notable divergence occurred on June 11: while active addresses increased, the price declined. The 7-day simple moving average for active addresses also crossed below the price trend, suggesting a bearish signal that preceded a drop toward $104,000.
Active Sending Addresses
Active sending addresses—wallets initiating transactions—rose significantly during the same period. On the day Bitcoin reached its weekly peak, sending addresses hit 711,804. This increase often indicates heightened selling activity or profit-taking, especially when prices are near resistance levels.
Active Receiving Addresses
In contrast, active receiving addresses experienced a noticeable decline. Despite the price reaching $108,000, receiving addresses peaked at only 653,953. This suggests that while some buyers entered the market, overall demand was not strong enough to sustain higher price levels.
Market Valuation Metrics
On-chain valuation models help assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical blockchain activity.
MVRV Ratio
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the value of coins based on their last transaction price. On June 11, with Bitcoin at $108,655, the MVRV stood at 2.29. By June 17, as the price fell to $104,667, the MVRV declined to 2.203—a 4.18% weekly decrease. A falling MVRV often indicates decreasing investor profit margins and potential market cooling.
Realized Price
The realized price reflects the average price at which all coins last moved. It rose slightly from $47,252 to $47,492 during the week, a 0.51% increase. This gradual uptick suggests long-term holders are still in profit, which can provide psychological support during corrections.
Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
SOPR measures whether spent outputs are realized at a profit or loss. It started the week at 1.015 and ended at 1.003, a 1.18% drop. Values above 1 indicate profit-taking, while values below 1 suggest loss realization. The decline hints at decreasing sell-side profitability.
Derivatives Market Activity
Futures and options markets reveal trader sentiment and potential price volatility.
Open Interest
Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures declined sharply from $35.8 billion on June 11 to $33.6 billion on June 14. This drop often signals rapid position closures or liquidations. A brief recovery on June 16 was short-lived, as geopolitical tensions triggered another decline. The instability suggests a lack of conviction among traders regarding market direction.
Funding Rates
Funding rates began the week high but fell significantly mid-week before rebounding. Positive funding rates indicate dominance of long positions, but the volatility reflects shifting risk appetite. Despite occasional optimism, traders remained cautious.
Liquidations
Liquidations totaled $656 million in long positions and $197 million in short positions. The largest long liquidations occurred on June 12–13, coinciding with news-driven volatility. Such events often accelerate price movements and increase market uncertainty.
Supply and Distribution Trends
Changes in supply distribution among wallet sizes can signal accumulation or distribution phases.
Wallet Holdings
Smaller wallets (<1 BTC and 1–10 BTC) saw slight decreases in their supply share. Meanwhile, mid-tier wallets (10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC) increased their holdings, suggesting accumulation. Large wallets (1k–10k BTC and 10k+ BTC) reduced their shares, possibly indicating distribution or reallocation.
Exchange Reserves
Exchange reserves declined from 2,503,122 BTC to 2,489,214 BTC—a net outflow of 13,908 BTC. Reduced reserves often signal decreased selling pressure, as investors move coins to cold storage. However, the 3.6% price drop during the same period implies that market sentiment remained weak.
Network Fees and Miner Behavior
Transaction fees and miner activity reflect network demand and operational health.
Transaction Fees
Mean transaction fees fluctuated throughout the week, peaking on June 13 at 0.00001858 BTC and bottoming on June 15 at 0.00000933 BTC. Total fees followed a similar pattern, reflecting periods of high and low network congestion.
Miner Flows
Miners recorded a positive net flow of 657 BTC for the week, meaning more coins entered than left their wallets. This often indicates that miners are holding rather than selling, which can reduce immediate selling pressure.
Whale Transaction Trends
Large holders (whales) significantly influence market liquidity and price action.
Whale Ratio
The exchange whale ratio—which measures the proportion of large transactions on centralized exchanges—started the week at 0.573 and ended at 0.584. Values above 0.35 typically indicate high whale activity. The sustained elevated ratio suggests whales were actively transacting, often a sign of market maneuvering.
Accumulation Patterns
Despite a 10% weekly decrease in total BTC transferred, whales accumulated an estimated $240,000 worth of Bitcoin. This accumulation trend may reflect confidence among high-net-worth investors, though increased selling on exchanges could offset positive momentum.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is on-chain analysis?
On-chain analysis involves evaluating blockchain data—such as transaction volumes, wallet activity, and miner behavior—to gauge market sentiment and predict price trends. It provides a data-driven perspective beyond traditional technical analysis.
How does the MVRV ratio work?
The MVRV ratio divides Bitcoin’s market value by its realized value. A high ratio suggests that the asset may be overvalued, while a low ratio can indicate undervaluation. It helps identify potential market tops and bottoms.
Why are exchange reserves important?
Exchange reserves indicate how much Bitcoin is held on trading platforms. A decrease often signals long-term holding sentiment, while an increase may suggest impending selling pressure. Monitoring reserves helps assess market liquidity conditions.
What do whale transactions reveal?
Whale transactions—large transfers by influential holders—can signal upcoming volatility or trend changes. Increased selling may precede downturns, while accumulation can indicate bullish expectations.
How do funding rates affect the market?
Funding rates in perpetual futures markets incentivize traders to balance long and short positions. Persistent positive rates may indicate bullish sentiment, but extreme values can signal overleveraging and potential liquidations.
Can miner flows predict price trends?
Miner flows reflect whether miners are selling or holding their rewards. Positive net flows (more coins entering wallets) often reduce immediate market supply, potentially supporting prices. Negative flows may indicate selling pressure.
Conclusion
The on-chain data from mid-June 2025 presents a mixed yet cautious outlook for Bitcoin. While some metrics like miner accumulation and reduced exchange reserves suggest underlying strength, declines in active addresses, valuation ratios, and derivatives activity point toward weakening momentum. Geopolitical events and trader sentiment played significant roles in shaping market behavior during this period.
For those looking to dive deeper into real-time data and advanced market indicators, consider using professional on-chain analytics tools. Always combine on-chain insights with broader market analysis before making investment decisions.