Next-Gen Layer 1 Blockchains: SUI and APTOS Analysis and Price Outlook

The 2020-2021 cryptocurrency bull run witnessed explosive market growth, with the total market capitalization soaring from around $150 billion in 2020 to nearly $3 trillion at its peak in November 2021.

During this period, Layer 1 blockchain projects like Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) delivered exceptional performance. Their technological strengths, rapidly expanding ecosystems, and killer dApps attracted massive capital and users. SOL surged from approximately $1.5 to $260 (a ~173x gain), while AVAX climbed from around $4 to $146 (a ~36.5x gain). This provided substantial returns even for investors who simply held the base layer tokens of these promising platforms.

This analysis revisits the standout Layer 1 performers from the last cycle, examines the key drivers behind their rapid growth, and evaluates whether emerging blockchains SUI and APTOS have the potential to become this cycle's breakout stars.

Estimating Market Cap Potential: Comparing Bull Run Peaks

At the 2021 peak, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached approximately **$3 trillion**. After a bear market trough below $1 trillion, the market has since recovered to around $2.5 trillion.

If we project growth from this cycle's bear market bottom of roughly $800 billion using the last cycle's 20x multiplier (from $150B to $3T), an extremely optimistic scenario could see a peak near $16 trillion. A more conservative approach compares the crypto market to traditional markets.

• The crypto market cap is only about 20% away from its all-time high.
• Stablecoin market cap is only 8.8% away from its all-time high.

A Comparative Analysis with the U.S. Stock Market

For a grounded perspective, we can look at the U.S. stock market. Its capitalization bottomed near $27 trillion in March 2020 and peaked at approximately $50.2 trillion in November 2021—nearly doubling. At that time, the crypto market represented about 6% of the U.S. stock market's value.

If this cycle follows a similar pattern and the U.S. stock market doubles again from its recent low, a conservative estimate would place the total crypto market capitalization between $4 and $6 trillion. For this analysis, we will use a baseline projection of $4.5 trillion, representing an 80% growth potential from current levels. This assumes the market can, at a minimum, replicate its previous cycle performance.

The market's recovery often signals a new bull run, but surpassing previous highs depends on new capital inflows. A key question is: which blockchain platforms are positioned to capture this growth?

Projecting Layer 1 Performance Based on Previous Cycle Market Share

With an expected total market cap, we can examine the market share distribution among Layer 1 tokens at the 2021 peak:

• BTC dominated, with a peak market cap of ~$1.2 trillion, representing ~40% of the total market.
• ETH was second, with a peak market cap of ~$570 billion, representing ~19% of the market.
• SOL ranked 5th, with a peak market cap of ~$77 billion, accounting for ~2.4% of the total market.
• AVAX reached a peak market cap of ~$30 billion, representing ~1% of the total market.

Projecting these market shares onto our $4.5 trillion future market cap estimate yields:

• A 40% share for BTC would mean a $1.8 trillion cap (price ~$94,737).
• A 19% share for ETH would mean an $855 billion cap (price ~$7,125).
• A "Solana-like" performer would need a ~$108 billion cap.
• An "Avalanche-like" performer would need a ~$45 billion cap.

The question remains: which projects could fill these roles?

Key Drivers for Rapid Layer 1 Growth in a Bull Market

Capital doesn't flow into a blockchain without reason. Analyzing Solana and Avalanche's success reveals several common factors:

High Throughput and Low Transaction Costs

Solana's Proof of History (PoH) and Avalanche's three-chain architecture offered users high-speed, low-cost transaction solutions, attracting developers and users en masse. With transaction costs as low as $0.00025 on Solana and minimal fees on Avalanche, they presented compelling alternatives to Ethereum's high gas fees.

Thriving DeFi, NFT, and GameFi Ecosystems

Solana's ecosystem boomed with DeFi applications like Serum and Raydium, driving huge capital inflows. Its NFT market, led by Magic Eden, quickly became a major player. The 2021 StepN move-to-earn craze further boosted Solana's user base and daily activity.

Avalanche launched "Avalanche Rush," a $180 million DeFi incentive program, which attracted billions in capital. It brought major DeFi protocols like Aave and Curve to its platform, causing its Total Value Locked (TVL) to explode from $300 million to $11 billion in just a few months.

Significant Capital Inflows and Market Validation

Major investments from top-tier firms like Andreessen Horowitz and Polychain Capital provided capital and, crucially, market validation and trust, forming a solid foundation for rapid growth.

Key Market Events and Technical Upgrades

Solana experienced a significant network outage in September 2021. However, it responded by accelerating technical upgrades, which continued to attract developers. Avalanche focused on metaverse applications and network expansion, drawing more innovative dApps to its platform.

Summary: The Blueprint for a Breakout Blockchain

We can distill the key factors for rapid Layer 1 growth during a bull market:

• Ecosystem Expansion: A strong and diverse ecosystem of dApps is crucial for attracting developers and users.
• Market Demand & Use Cases: Growth in specific sectors (like GameFi, NFT, DeFi then; AI, DePIN, RWA, PayPal now) drives users and capital. The presence of a major narrative and killer apps is critical.
• Cross-Chain Interoperability: Seamless interoperability with other major chains lowers the barrier to entry, enabling higher capital fluidity and broader use cases.
• Capital Injection & Incentive Programs: Direct capital support and reward programs are powerful tools for attracting liquidity, developers, and users.

Key metrics to watch for these factors include: funding raised, TVL, daily active users (DAU), and the number of dApps.

Key Performance Data for Solana and Avalanche

Here's a snapshot of Solana and Avalanche's key metrics at their last cycle peak:

Solana

• Total Funding: ~$359 million
• TVL: Peak of ~$14 billion
• Daily Active Users: Peak of ~400,000
• dApp Count: Peak of over 350

Avalanche

• Total Funding: ~$327 million
• TVL: Peak of ~$11 billion
• Daily Active Users: Peak of ~200,000
• dApp Count: Peak of over 200

This Cycle's Contenders: SUI and APTOS Analysis

Now, we can apply these frameworks and metrics to this cycle's promising newcomers: SUI and APTOS.

Comparative Analysis: SUI vs. APTOS Fundamentals

Summary of Findings:

• Performance: Both Sui and Aptos meet the criteria for high throughput and low costs.
• Interoperability: Both are still in early stages of developing robust cross-chain functionality, which currently presents a barrier to entry.
• Ecosystem Diversity: Their ecosystems are heavily concentrated in DeFi (lending, staking, DEXs), lacking the diversity seen on EVM chains. Few projects align with major new narratives like AI or DePIN. Aptos currently has a significant lead in dApp count.
• TVL & Starting Point: While their current TVL ($1.1B for Sui, $730M for Aptos) is far from the peak figures of SOL and AVAX, it is actually higher than their starting points (~$500M for Solana, ~$300M for Avalanche) before their major rallies.
• Development: Both use the Move programming language, which creates a different developer dynamic compared to Solana's Rust or Avalanche's Go. The focus must be on attracting talent, not just forking projects.
• Funding: Both have raised significant capital (>$3.5B each), on par with the last cycle's leaders, providing a strong war chest for growth.

For Sui and Aptos to reach the heights of the previous cycle's leaders, they will need substantial external capital inflows, continued reduction of user friction, and significant ecosystem diversification.

Potential Price Growth for SUI and APT in a Bull Market Scenario

Finally, let's explore a optimistic price forecast. This assumes the bull market peak arrives in Q2 2025, the total crypto market cap reaches $4.5 trillion, and emerging chains capture market share similar to SOL and AVAX in 2021, based on their fully diluted circulating supplies.

Scenario 1: Sui as the new Solana, Aptos as the new Avalanche

• If SUI's market cap reaches $108 billion, its token price could be ~**$31**.
• If APT's market cap reaches $45 billion, its token price could be ~**$88**.

Scenario 2: Aptos as the new Solana, Sui as the new Avalanche

• If APT's market cap reaches $108 billion, its token price could be ~**$211**.
• If SUI's market cap reaches $45 billion, its token price could be ~**$13**.

Projected Growth Multiples

Based on these scenarios and current prices, $SUI** could see a potential upside of **6.5x to 15x**, while **$APT could see a potential upside of 8.5x to 21x.

👉 Explore advanced on-chain analytics tools to track these metrics in real-time.

A Important Consideration: The Super-Chain Cycle May Not Repeat

It's crucial to acknowledge that all previous assumptions are based on the premise that a "super-chain" cycle will repeat.

The most significant difference in this cycle is the rise of Layer 2 (L2) solutions. The L2 explosion occurred during the last bear market. While critics often claim a lack of blockchain innovation, the industry has largely addressed the scalability issue. Therefore, raw speed and low fees are no longer unique selling points for new Layer 1s.

The current trend appears to be shifting towards "app-chains" or "sovereign chains," where major dApps (like Uniswap) consider launching their own dedicated blockchains. This fragmentation could reduce the capital concentration seen in a few dominant Layer 1s during the last cycle.

Whether this cycle will produce new Layer 1 giants on the scale of the last cycle remains a critical open question for the market to answer. For a deeper dive into capital rotation strategies between L1 and L2 assets, explore more strategies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main advantages of Sui and Aptos?
Both blockchains utilize the Move programming language, designed for safer smart contract development. They offer extremely high theoretical throughput (over 100,000 TPS) and very low transaction fees (less than $0.01), providing a scalable foundation for applications.

How do Sui and Aptos differ from each other?
While both use Move, they implement it differently, leading to distinct architectural designs. Aptos often highlights its focus on upgradeability and user experience, while Sui emphasizes its object-centric model for parallel transaction processing. Currently, Aptos has a larger number of deployed dApps.

Is investing in Layer 1 tokens like SUI and APT still a good strategy?
The potential for high returns exists, as shown in the analysis. However, the market landscape has changed with the proliferation of Layer 2s. A diversified portfolio that includes promising L1s alongside leading L2 tokens might be a more balanced approach to capture growth across the entire ecosystem.

What are the biggest risks for Sui and Aptos?
Key risks include failure to attract diverse, killer dApps beyond basic DeFi, losing developer mindshare to easier-to-use L2s, and being outcompeted by other new or existing chains with stronger ecosystem funding and partnerships.

What metrics should I watch to gauge their success?
Focus on ecosystem health indicators: Total Value Locked (TVL), Daily Active Users (DAU), the number and diversity of dApps (especially outside of DeFi), and the volume of cross-chain bridges being used to bring assets onto the chains.

Could both SUI and APT succeed?
It's possible. The market is large enough to support multiple winners. Their shared use of Move could even create a broader "Move ecosystem," benefiting both platforms. Their success will ultimately depend on execution and their ability to carve out unique market positions.