Could Pepe (PEPE) Price Surge on Rising Risk Sentiment?

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Pepe (PEPE) price surged over 10% to trade at $0.0000090 at the time of writing on Thursday, reflecting a broader bullish wave in the cryptocurrency market. Investor interest appears to be shifting toward altcoins, particularly meme coins like PEPE. However, Bitcoin (BTC) remains the dominant force, backed by steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and ongoing institutional adoption.

Bitcoin extended its gains above $99,000 during Thursday’s European session, triggering recoveries across the market. This uptick can be attributed to the Federal Reserve meeting market expectations by holding interest rates steady in the 4.25%–4.5% range, as well as optimism ahead of US-China trade talks in Switzerland this weekend.

Additionally, news of a potential trade deal between the US and the UK could further boost market sentiment, benefiting risk assets like cryptocurrencies. US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that a "major press conference" would be held at 14:00 GMT on Thursday regarding a significant trade agreement with representatives from a "large and highly respected country." A UK government official confirmed early Thursday that President Trump is expected to outline a draft US-UK trade deal.

Pepe Price Gains Momentum as Whales Increase Exposure

Optimism around a broad-based altcoin season is fading due to liquidity crises, elevated volatility, and large token unlocks, which are creating headwinds.

Isolated rallies among altcoins suggest that investors are likely focusing on tokens with rebound potential. At the same time, key narratives such as meme coins, artificial intelligence (AI), and real-world assets (RWAs) are gaining traction this cycle.

This perspective has seen Pepe’s price steadily recover from the April downturn triggered by market-wide sell-offs, supported by growing demand from large-volume investors. According to Lookonchain, a platform tracking large blockchain transactions, one whale purchased 500 billion PEPE tokens valued at approximately $4.36 million. This particular whale now holds a total of 2 trillion PEPE, worth around $17.42 million.

Lookonchain also highlighted that on April 30, another whale with a staggering $147 million in assets withdrew 1.5 trillion PEPE tokens valued at $13.3 million from Binance. Withdrawals from exchanges often signal bullish sentiment, as investors move tokens to self-custody wallets for long-term holding. This reduces potential selling pressure by decreasing the available supply on exchanges.

Santiment’s Supply Distribution metric emphasizes the high risk sentiment. The chart below shows that addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million PEPE have grown to represent 0.94% of the supply, up from 0.92% in February. If demand for PEPE continues to grow, creating a stronger tailwind, its price could surpass $0.00001 or even reach $0.000015 in the short term.

Pepe Bulls Face Resistance at the 100-Day EMA

Pepe’s price rebound appears unstoppable this Thursday after reclaiming the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.0000081 as support. Bulls are now testing immediate resistance at $0.0000091, near the 100-day EMA.

The upward trend in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward the overbought region shows strong bullish momentum, increasing the likelihood that PEPE will break above the 100-day EMA.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests a buy signal on the daily chart. This could manifest with the MACD line (blue) crossing above the signal line (red). If traders increase their exposure to PEPE, the upward trend could extend further than expected, with short-term targets at the 200-day EMA around $0.00001 and $0.000015—a level last tested as support and resistance in January.

However, failure to break above the immediate resistance of the 100-day EMA at $0.0000091 or the 200-day EMA at $0.00001 could create instability, triggering sell pressure as traders adjust their positions.

Profit-taking may increase the likelihood of a trend reversal. Key levels to monitor for risk management include the 50-day EMA at $0.0000081 and the April 7 low at $0.0000058.

Frequently Asked Questions

What determines the total supply of a cryptocurrency?
The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides the maximum number of tokens that can be minted or issued. These assets are produced through mining, staking, or other mechanisms defined by the underlying blockchain’s algorithm. For example, since its creation, a total of 19,445,656 BTC have been minted, which represents Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The circulating supply can also decrease through actions like token burns or accidental transfers to incompatible blockchain addresses.

How is market capitalization calculated?
Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the circulating supply of an asset by its current market value. In Bitcoin’s case, its market cap exceeded $570 billion in early August 2023—a result of over 19 million BTC in circulation multiplied by a price of around $29,600.

What does trading volume indicate?
Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens traded between buyers and sellers within a specific period, such as 24 hours. This metric, which combines volumes from centralized and decentralized exchanges, is used to gauge market sentiment. Rising trading volume often signals increased demand for an asset, as more participants buy and sell the cryptocurrency.

What is funding rate in perpetual contracts?
Funding rate is a mechanism designed to encourage traders to open positions and ensure that perpetual contract prices align with spot market prices. Exchanges use this system to periodically align futures prices with market rates. A positive funding rate means the perpetual contract price is higher than the market price, so traders with long positions pay those with short positions. Conversely, a negative funding rate indicates perpetual contract prices are below the market price, so short traders pay long traders.

What are the key indicators to watch for PEPE’s price movement?
Critical indicators for PEPE include the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which serve as dynamic support and resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) helps gauge momentum, while the MACD can signal trend changes. Additionally, tracking supply distribution and whale activity provides insight into market sentiment.

How can investors manage risk when trading meme coins like PEPE?
Investors should set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels, diversify their portfolios, and avoid allocating a significant portion of capital to high-volatility assets. Staying informed about market trends, regulatory news, and social sentiment can also help in making informed decisions. For those looking to explore more strategies and tools, advanced platforms offer real-time data and risk management features.

Understanding these metrics and market dynamics can help traders navigate the volatile yet opportunities crypto landscape. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to the space, staying educated and cautious is key to managing risk and capitalizing on potential gains. For further insights and real-time analytical tools, consider exploring dedicated crypto platforms.