Ethereum's spot and derivatives markets are experiencing subdued volatility, with investors showing reduced buying activity over the past few days. While ETH’s price remains range-bound, on-chain activity has shown noticeable growth. The asset faced rejection after touching the $2,500 resistance level, forming an inverted hammer candlestick pattern that suggests potential short-term bearish pressure.
Market Sentiment Remains Cautious Amid Low Volatility
Ethereum's derivatives and spot markets have displayed neutral trading activity recently, reflecting persistent caution among traders. Key on-chain metrics support this observation. The network’s realized profit/loss ratio and mean coin age indicate that investors have reduced their transactional behavior. Daily losses and profits have stayed below the $100 million mark, while distribution and accumulation trends have remained largely flat over recent days.
Data from CryptoQuant further reveals that whale balances—addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH—have stayed relatively steady since the beginning of the week, increasing by only 7,000 ETH. This minimal movement coincides with a slight rise in exchange reserves, pointing to moderate selling pressure.
The derivatives market mirrors this neutral-to-bearish sentiment. Open interest (OI), which represents the total value of unsettled futures contracts, has failed to surpass 13 million ETH since last Saturday. This suggests that traders are hesitant to take large directional bets in the current environment.
Rising Network Usage Hints at Underlying Strength
Despite the sideways price movement, Ethereum’s underlying network activity tells a more optimistic story. After a consistent decline since June 13th, the number of active addresses has rebounded, indicating renewed user engagement.
This uptick in participation is further evidenced by a sharp increase in daily transactions. Between Sunday and Wednesday, transaction counts surged from 1.23 million to 1.75 million—a clear sign of growing interest and utility within the Ethereum ecosystem.
Such growth in fundamental usage often lays the groundwork for long-term price recovery, provided broader macroeconomic conditions remain supportive. However, current market participants appear to be in a wait-and-see mode due to external uncertainties, such as the pending deadline on a key US tariff policy. This has cast a short-term bearish shadow over ETH and the wider crypto market.
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Ethereum Price Prediction: Key Levels to Watch After Rejection at $2,500
Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum futures markets saw $75.11 million in liquidations, with nearly equal amounts from long ($37.08 million) and short ($38.03 million) positions. This indicates a balanced but tense market.
After briefly reclaiming the $2,500 level, ETH faced rejection at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and formed an inverted hammer on the 12-hour chart. For bulls to regain control, ETH must defend the support near $2,400 and break above the resistance at $2,510. A successful breakout could signal the start of a new upward move.
Should the $2,400 support break, ETH may test the upper boundary of the current descending channel. A break below both the channel and the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle would validate a bear flag pattern, potentially pushing the price toward the critical $2,110 level.
Technical indicators offer a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing neutral territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator remains above the midline. A bullish crossover above the RSI’s neutral level could help restore positive momentum.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is causing Ethereum’s price to trade sideways?
Ethereum is experiencing low volatility due to cautious sentiment in both spot and derivatives markets. Low realized profits/losses, stable whale activity, and stagnant open interest indicate traders are waiting for clearer signals.
How does network activity affect Ethereum’s price?
Increased network activity, such as rising active addresses and transaction volume, often indicates growing utility and user adoption. This can build a foundation for future price appreciation, even if short-term price action remains muted.
What does the inverted hammer candlestick pattern mean for ETH?
An inverted hammer often suggests a potential reversal after an uptrend, indicating that sellers are gaining strength. It requires confirmation from subsequent price action—either a break above resistance or below support.
What key levels should traders watch?
Traders should monitor support at $2,400 and resistance at $2,510. A break above $2,510 could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below $2,400 may lead to a test of lower supports.
How are Ethereum ETFs influencing its price?
ETFs are expected to bring significant institutional investment into ETH. Predictions of substantial inflows in the second half of the year could serve as a major bullish catalyst, though current market conditions are delaying this impact.
What role do macroeconomic factors play?
Macro events, such as regulatory announcements and geopolitical policies, can affect investor sentiment across crypto markets. The current uncertainty around US policy deadlines is contributing to short-term caution.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Trading leveraged products like CFDs involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors.