Bloomberg Analysts Raise XRP, Solana, and Litecoin ETF Approval Odds to 95%

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In a significant update from Bloomberg Intelligence, senior ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have substantially increased their approval probability forecasts for several single-asset cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They now assign a 95% likelihood that spot ETFs for XRP, Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC) will receive regulatory approval by the end of 2025.

Revised Outlook for Crypto ETFs

The analysts publicly shared their revised matrix on social media platform X on June 30, indicating a wave of new ETF approvals expected in the second half of 2025. This updated assessment represents the third major upward revision in recent months, reflecting increasingly positive signals from regulatory engagement.

The 95% probability rating applies equally to four distinct categories:

Each of these products has already had its initial Rule 19b-4 submission acknowledged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), placing them further along in the approval pipeline.

Tiered Probability Rankings

Behind the front-runners, several other digital assets received strong probability ratings:

The analysts note that tokens with higher ratings typically trade on Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated venues and have been implicitly treated as commodities in recent SEC correspondence. The lower probabilities for some assets reflect ongoing questions about commodity status and the absence of CFTC-regulated futures markets.

Remarkable Progress Throughout 2025

The dramatic shift in outlook becomes evident when examining the progression of probability assessments throughout the year:

This represents approximately a 25-30 percentage point increase for these assets since the beginning of 2025, a substantial shift in expert sentiment within a relatively short timeframe.

Key Factors Driving Increased Optimism

Three primary dynamics underpin the latest probability increase:

1. Impending Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund Decision

The SEC faces a July 2 deadline to decide whether to allow NYSE Arca to list shares of Grayscale's Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC). This $730 million vehicle holds Bitcoin, Ether, and a combined 8% allocation to XRP, SOL, and Cardano. Analysts suggest the modest non-BTC/ETH allocation might make this product more palatable to regulators.

ETF Store president Nate Geraci characterized potential approval as "highly likely" and suggested it would create a "low-risk sandbox" for the SEC to gather surveillance data before considering standalone altcoin funds.

2. Regulatory Treatment as Commodities

The SEC's acknowledgment of the 19b-4 filings for these assets suggests the regulator likely views the underlying altcoins as commodities rather than securities. This distinction proves crucial for ETF approval, as it places these assets under different regulatory frameworks.

3. Active Issuer Engagement

Multiple ETF sponsors—including Canary, VanEck, 21Shares, and Fidelity—have submitted amended S-1 filings at the SEC's request over the past month. This level of iterative dialogue mirrors the pattern observed before the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and spot Ether ETFs seven months later.

Upcoming Decision Deadlines

If the Grayscale basket product receives approval this week, attention will quickly shift to the single-asset ETF queue with these key deadlines:

These deadlines represent the final SEC decision dates for each application, creating a clear timeline for potential approvals throughout late 2025 and early 2026.

Market Context and Implications

At the time of reporting, XRP traded at $2.21, with market participants closely watching regulatory developments. The approval of multiple altcoin ETFs would represent a substantial expansion of the cryptocurrency investment vehicle ecosystem, potentially bringing significant new institutional and retail capital into these digital assets.

The progression of probability assessments throughout 2025 demonstrates how rapidly regulatory attitudes and market structures can evolve in the digital asset space. What seemed unlikely at the beginning of the year now appears almost certain according to leading ETF experts.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What does a 95% approval probability mean for these ETFs?
The 95% probability indicates near-certainty according to Bloomberg analysts that these ETFs will gain approval by end of 2025. This rating reflects multiple positive factors including regulatory engagement, commodity status recognition, and precedent from earlier Bitcoin and Ether ETF approvals.

Why are some cryptocurrencies receiving higher probability ratings than others?
Tokens with higher ratings typically have existing futures trading on CFTC-regulated platforms, clearer commodity status, and more established market infrastructure. These factors reduce regulatory uncertainty and make approval more straightforward.

How might the Grayscale basket product decision affect single-asset ETFs?
Approval of the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund would create a regulatory precedent for including altcoins in ETF products and provide the SEC with surveillance data. This could establish a framework that makes single-asset ETF approvals more likely.

What happens if the SEC rejects these ETF applications?
While considered unlikely given the high probability ratings, rejection would delay potential approval until sponsors address regulatory concerns and potentially refile applications. This could create short-term market volatility but wouldn't necessarily preclude eventual approval.

How do these ETF approvals compare to Bitcoin and Ether ETF processes?
The approval process appears to be following a similar pattern of iterative engagement between issuers and regulators. The main difference is that these assets are establishing their commodity status during the process rather than beforehand.

What impact might ETF approvals have on cryptocurrency prices?
Historical precedent suggests ETF approvals can create significant buying pressure as new investment vehicles attract institutional and retail capital. However, market conditions and broader factors also influence price movements following regulatory decisions.