A wave of optimism surrounding improving U.S.-China trade relations has propelled Bitcoin past $93,000, marking an impressive 24-hour surge of over 7%. However, a report from CryptoQuant indicates that on-chain data reveals lingering fragility in market fundamentals, with BTC currently testing key resistance levels.
Data from Coinglass shows that $490 million in positions were liquidated over the past 12 hours, with short positions accounting for a staggering $450 million of that total.
Meanwhile, gold, after hitting an all-time high of $3,500 intraday, experienced a sharp reversal, closing 1% lower. The world's largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, reported a decrease in its holdings by 11.47 tonnes, bringing its current inventory to 947.70 tonnes.
This recent price movement appears to be more than just a short-term reaction to trade war de-escalation. It resembles a broader risk repricing fueled by a confluence of macro signals. Within this storm of policy博弈 and safe-haven demand, Bitcoin is once again being perceived as a capital 'safe harbor.' Its soaring price may be the market's early response to looming inflation, dollar credibility concerns, and shifts in the global geopolitical landscape.
Is the Tariff Reversal Sustainable?
The primary catalyst for Bitcoin's recent ascent is a perceived shift in tariff policy from the Trump administration.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant, during a private meeting with investors at JPMorgan, stated that the current tariff deadlock with China is unsustainable. He anticipated an easing "in the near future," describing the situation as a "trade embargo." However, he also cautioned that a more comprehensive agreement between the U.S. and China could still take years to materialize.
Subsequently, President Trump told media at the White House that U.S. tariffs on China would be "significantly reduced from the current 145% level," alleviating fears of a further escalation in the trade war.
The Trump administration is currently engaged in trade negotiations with numerous countries, including Japan, India, South Korea, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt noted that the administration has received 18 trade agreement proposals from other nations, adding, "All relevant parties wish to see a trade agreement reached."
Despite these developments, Trump has not publicly indicated an intention to remove the "10% baseline tariffs" he himself instituted. He maintains that other countries should lower their import taxes and eliminate various non-tariff barriers, which the U.S. views as obstacles to American exports.
Bitcoin's Decoupling from Traditional Finance
The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook report下调 (downgraded) U.S. growth expectations for the year to 1.8%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7%. Concurrently, inflation expectations were revised upward from 1.9% to 3%. The report also predicted a broader global economic slowdown. Within an hour of its release, Bitcoin jumped to a seven-week high, breaking through the $90,000 barrier.
Some analysts point to Bitcoin's recent performance as evidence that it is decoupling from the trajectories of traditional finance and tech stocks. Patrick Liou, Vice President of Institutional Sales at Gemini, noted that Bitcoin's mild "deviation" reflects investor caution in the face of U.S. political and macro risks, particularly President Trump's recent criticism of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the progress of post-war trade negotiations.
Chart comparing the performance of BTC against the Nasdaq and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
"We began noticing genuine signs of 'decoupling' starting on Sunday evening," Liou stated. "Considering Trump's increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward the Fed and the initiation of trade agreement negotiations post-'Liberation Day,' investors are in a de-risking mode when assessing the U.S. market. Interestingly, one of the directions for capital rotation is Bitcoin. We can clearly see a pronounced decoupling trend emerging between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks and the dollar."
Following the Easter holiday weekend, U.S. equities experienced a pullback on Monday, but Bitcoin climbed against the trend, mirroring gold's strong performance. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $381.4 million that day, the largest single-day influx since late January, further underscoring robust market demand for Bitcoin.
Analysts at QCP Capital highlighted that soaring gold prices, a weakening dollar, and institutional funds flowing into Bitcoin collectively support the "Bitcoin decoupling" thesis. "Bitcoin's resilience during overnight trading hours further reinforces the decoupling market narrative," QCP analysts said. "As capital rotates towards safe-haven and inflation-resistant assets, Bitcoin and gold are becoming the primary beneficiaries of capital fleeing dollar risk."
While analysts at firms like QCP Capital and Bernstein emphasize Bitcoin's growing appeal as a safe-haven asset, Jake O., an OTC trader at Wintermute, cautions that this decoupling phenomenon could be undone by a dollar rebound.
"As I mentioned yesterday, I believe this rally is primarily driven by dollar weakness. If that's the case, the decoupling from U.S. equities might be difficult to sustain once the DXY stabilizes. This is the most critical variable this week, and this hypothesis hasn't truly been tested yet."
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Trump Unlikely to Dismiss Powell
On April 22, Trump took to Truth Social to lambast Fed Chair Jerome Powell as a "major loser," demanding immediate interest rate cuts and even floating the idea of his dismissal. This sparked market fears about the Fed's independence being compromised, causing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to swiftly fall below 98, hitting a nearly three-year low.
An analyst from Bitunix suggested that sustained political pressure could shake the Fed's institutional framework, potentially triggering a global acceleration in the search for safe-haven assets. This might also speed up a shift of capital from the dollar towards assets with anti-censorship and anti-confiscation properties, like Bitcoin and stablecoins.
However, later that evening, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated in an interview: "Both Mr. Powell and I are accustomed to political pressure. I have the utmost respect for them and believe Powell will not be dismissed." A chief economist at Citi echoed this sentiment, asserting that Trump would not fire Chair Powell and that "this line will not be crossed."
Therefore, the unlikelihood of Powell's dismissal helps maintain stability in global financial market秩序 (order). Nevertheless, should Trump defy expectations and proceed to fire the Fed chair, the Dollar Index and U.S. stocks would likely face further downward pressure, with Bitcoin and gold emerging as the dominant safe-haven choices for mainstream capital.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused Bitcoin's recent price surge?
Bitcoin's recent surge past $93,000 was primarily driven by optimism around improving U.S.-China trade relations and a potential reduction in tariffs. This was compounded by macro factors like a downgraded U.S. growth forecast, higher inflation expectations, and a weakening U.S. dollar, which fueled demand for alternative assets.
Is Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets like stocks?
Recent performance suggests a potential短期 (short-term) decoupling, where Bitcoin's price movement has diverged from that of major U.S. stock indices like the Nasdaq. Some analysts attribute this to investors seeking assets uncorrelated to traditional finance amid political and economic uncertainty. However, others caution that this trend may reverse if the U.S. dollar strengthens again.
Why is Bitcoin compared to digital gold?
Bitcoin is often called "digital gold" because it shares several characteristics with the precious metal. Both are seen as stores of value and potential hedges against inflation and geopolitical instability. They are scarce assets (Bitcoin has a capped supply) that operate outside the direct control of any single government or central bank.
What is the significance of ETF flows for Bitcoin?
Significant net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, like the $381 million recorded recently, indicate strong institutional demand and make it easier for traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without holding it directly. Sustained inflows are generally viewed as a bullish signal for the market.
Could political pressure on the Federal Reserve affect Bitcoin?
Yes. Perceived political interference that threatens the independence of the Federal Reserve can undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar and traditional financial systems. This can drive investors towards decentralized assets like Bitcoin, which are designed to be resistant to such centralized control and censorship.
What are the key resistance levels for Bitcoin?
While Bitcoin broke through $90,000, on-chain data from firms like CryptoQuant suggests it is facing resistance around its current levels near $93,000. Resistance levels are price points where selling pressure historically intensifies, potentially halting or reversing an upward trend.